Books Probability and Statistical Inference
The Bivariate Normal Distribution
Many applications are concerned with the conditional distribution of one of the random variables, say , given the the value of the other random variable . Assume, we can make the following assumptions:
- follows a normal distribution.
- The conditional mean is a linear function of .
- The conditional variance is a constant. That is, it is independent of . (Recall that can be regarded as a function of .)
Assumption (b) implies that
Now, we will study the implication of assumption (c). We have
In summary, we have concluded that the formula for the conditional variance is
Therefore,
The conditional PDF of is given by
Note that so far we only assume that has mean and variance ; nothing is said about the distribution of . If we can further assume that follows a normal distribution, i.e., , then the PDF of is
Combined with (4.8), we can show that the joint PDF of and is given by
where
We introduce to ease the typing of the expression of for it is too long otherwise.
Note that in (4.9), we deliberately organize in terms of and to normalize (or standardize) the data of and . Recall that these terms are related to the standard scores of and , respectively.
We formally define the bivariate normal distribution as follows.
Recall that we arrived at the bivariate normal PDF by first imposing structure on the conditional distribution of given , then assuming that is normal, and only then obtaining the joint density. That order matches how the distribution is often motivated: it is natural and keeps intuition in view. By contrast, many texts begin with the full joint formula and then derive properties; that arrangement can be harder to read and can obscure the motivating structure and the secondary insights that arise when one builds the model in stages.
For a logically tight treatment, however, we now take Definition 4.4 as the definition of the bivariate normal distribution. Until this point, we had no official definition; accordingly, any property used informally in the heuristic derivation must not be carried over without proof. Once Definition 4.4 is in place, we must reestablish those properties starting from the density alone. In particular, we may not treat , , , , and merely as suggestive symbols for the means and variances of and and the correlation between them; we must derive those interpretations from Definition 4.4.
Reestablishing these facts from the definition may look arduous; in practice the work is largely routine, because the constructive argument that produced the joint density already suggests what to integrate and how the pieces fit together.
If and have the bivariate normal distribution with parameters , , , , and , then we have the following properties:
- and .
- and .
- The correlation coefficient of and is .
Proof
(a) We only prove since the other case is analogous. We can factorize as follows:
The goal is to show that
And this is evident when we note that is exactly the PDF of some random variable following . Therefore,
This shows that is indeed the PDF of ; and by its form, we conclude that .
(b) We only prove . Now that we know , we can use (4.11) to show that
This implies that .
(c) Let denote the correlation coefficient. We now have that
which is a linear function of . Therefore, the coefficient of must be ; and hence .
If we fix and consider the level set , then (4.10) rearranges to a quadratic equation in and :
We show that this curve is an ellipse. Equivalently, every plane parallel to the -plane intersects the graph of the bivariate normal density in an ellipse; thus the contours of the density are ellipses.
Written in the general form
where the coefficients are
The discriminant is
Since , the conic is an ellipse.
The formula for the center of the ellipse is
After a lengthy but routine calculation, we obtain
That is, the centers of all the ellipses are at , independent of .
Let have the bivariate normal distribution with parameters , , , , and . Figure 4.4 shows the joint PDF as a surface over the -plane on the left. On the right, contours of that density are drawn in the plane; superimposed is the conditional mean of given , i.e., the line . It passes through the point , which is the center of all the ellipses.
Recall that if two random variables are independent, then their correlation coefficient is . But the converse is not true. However, for the bivariate normal distribution, the independence is equivalent to the zero correlation.
Proof
We only need to show the reverse direction. Assume that . It follows from (4.11) that
This shows that the joint PDF can be factored as the product of the marginal PDFs. Therefore, and are independent.
Exercises
Let
Show that
- is a joint PDF.
- The marginal PDFs and are each normal.
This example tells us that and may each be normal; and yet their joint distribution may not be a bivariate normal distribution. Figure 4.5 shows the joint PDF of and in this example.
Proof
(a) The statement that for all is not that obvious. The key is to show that
We have
where the inequality follows from the fact that . Let and define . We now estimate . Taking the derivative of ,
Note that
Therefore, attains its maximum at and the maximum value is . In summary, we shown that
where the equality holds if and only if . This implies that indeed for all . Moreover, the only two points where vanishes are and .
We also need to show that integrates to . Write
We divide the integral into two parts:
By using the polar coordinate transformation, we have
And
(Recall that we have done above calculations when we were studying the normal distributions.) Therefore, . We now evaluate . (The goal is to show that .)
Again, using the polar coordinate transformation, we have
Plugging the values of and into (4.12) yields
(b) We only compute the marginal . We divide the integral into two parts:
By (4.13), we obtain
As for , we may immediately conclude that since the integrand is an odd function of . Therefore,
This shows that , i.e., follows a standard normal distribution. Similarly, we can show that .