Books Probability and Statistical Inference

The Bivariate Normal Distribution

Many applications are concerned with the conditional distribution of one of the random variables, say 𝑌𝑌, given the the value of the other random variable 𝑋=𝑥𝑋=𝑥. Assume, we can make the following assumptions:

  1. 𝑌∣𝑋=𝑥𝑌|𝑋=𝑥 follows a normal distribution.
  2. The conditional mean μ𝑌∣𝑥{\mu }_{𝑌|𝑥} is a linear function of 𝑥𝑥.
  3. The conditional variance σ𝑌∣𝑥2{\sigma }_{𝑌|𝑥}^{2} is a constant. That is, it is independent of 𝑥𝑥. (Recall that σ𝑌∣𝑥2{\sigma }_{𝑌|𝑥}^{2} can be regarded as a function of 𝑥𝑥.)

Assumption (b) implies that

μ𝑌∣𝑥=μ𝑌+ρσ𝑌σ𝑋(𝑥−μ𝑋).{\mu }_{𝑌|𝑥}={\mu }_{𝑌}+\rho \frac{{\sigma }_{𝑌}}{{\sigma }_{𝑋}}(𝑥-{\mu }_{𝑋}).

Now, we will study the implication of assumption (c). We have

σ𝑌∣𝑥2=E[(𝑌−μ𝑌∣𝑥)2∣𝑋=𝑥]=∫−∞∞(𝑦−μ𝑌∣𝑥)2h(𝑦∣𝑥) d𝑦=∫−∞∞(𝑦−μ𝑌∣𝑥)2h(𝑦∣𝑥) d𝑦⏟independent of 𝑥 by assumption∫−∞∞𝑓𝑋(𝑥) d𝑥⏟=1=∫−∞∞∫−∞∞(𝑦−μ𝑌∣𝑥)2h(𝑦∣𝑥)𝑓𝑋(𝑥)⏟=𝑓(𝑥,𝑦) d𝑦 d𝑥=∫−∞∞∫−∞∞(𝑦−μ𝑌∣𝑥)2𝑓(𝑥,𝑦) d𝑦 d𝑥Regard as a joint expectation=E[(𝑌−μ𝑌∣𝑋)2]Note here we write 𝑋 instead of 𝑥 since 𝑋 is also random=E[(𝑌−μ𝑌−ρσ𝑌σ𝑋(𝑋−μ𝑋))2]=E[(𝑌−μ𝑌)2]−2ρσ𝑌σ𝑋E[(𝑋−μ𝑋)(𝑌−μ𝑌)]+(ρσ𝑌σ𝑋)2E[(𝑋−μ𝑋)2]=σ𝑌2(1−ρ2)\begin{aligned}{\sigma }_{𝑌|𝑥}^{2}=\mathbb{E}[{(𝑌-{\mu }_{𝑌|𝑥})}^{2}|𝑋=𝑥] & ={\int }_{-\infty }^{\infty }{(𝑦-{\mu }_{𝑌|𝑥})}^{2}h(𝑦|𝑥)\, \mathrm{d}𝑦 \\ & =\underbrace{{\int }_{-\infty }^{\infty }{(𝑦-{\mu }_{𝑌|𝑥})}^{2}h(𝑦|𝑥)\, \mathrm{d}𝑦}_{\text{independent of}\, 𝑥\, \text{by assumption}}\underbrace{{\int }_{-\infty }^{\infty }{𝑓}_{𝑋}(𝑥)\, \mathrm{d}𝑥}_{=1} \\ & ={\int }_{-\infty }^{\infty }{\int }_{-\infty }^{\infty }{(𝑦-{\mu }_{𝑌|𝑥})}^{2}\underbrace{h(𝑦|𝑥){𝑓}_{𝑋}(𝑥)}_{=𝑓(𝑥,𝑦)}\, \mathrm{d}𝑦\, \mathrm{d}𝑥 \\ & ={\int }_{-\infty }^{\infty }{\int }_{-\infty }^{\infty }{(𝑦-{\mu }_{𝑌|𝑥})}^{2}𝑓(𝑥,𝑦)\, \mathrm{d}𝑦\, \mathrm{d}𝑥 \\ & \text{Regard as a joint expectation} \\ & =\mathbb{E}[{(𝑌-{\mu }_{𝑌|𝑋})}^{2}] \\ & \text{Note here we write}\, 𝑋\, \text{instead of}\, 𝑥\, \text{since}\, 𝑋\, \text{is also random} \\ & =\mathbb{E}\left[{\left(𝑌-{\mu }_{𝑌}-\rho \frac{{\sigma }_{𝑌}}{{\sigma }_{𝑋}}(𝑋-{\mu }_{𝑋})\right)}^{2}\right] \\ & =\mathbb{E}[{(𝑌-{\mu }_{𝑌})}^{2}] \\ & -2\rho \frac{{\sigma }_{𝑌}}{{\sigma }_{𝑋}}\mathbb{E}[(𝑋-{\mu }_{𝑋})(𝑌-{\mu }_{𝑌})]+{\left(\rho \frac{{\sigma }_{𝑌}}{{\sigma }_{𝑋}}\right)}^{2}\mathbb{E}[{(𝑋-{\mu }_{𝑋})}^{2}] \\ & ={\sigma }_{𝑌}^{2}(1-{\rho }^{2})\end{aligned}

In summary, we have concluded that the formula for the conditional variance is

σ𝑌∣𝑥2=σ𝑌2(1−ρ2).{\sigma }_{𝑌|𝑥}^{2}={\sigma }_{𝑌}^{2}(1-{\rho }^{2}).

Therefore,

𝑌∣𝑋=𝑥∼𝒩(μ𝑌+ρσ𝑌σ𝑋(𝑥−μ𝑋),σ𝑌2(1−ρ2)).𝑌|𝑋=𝑥∼𝒩\left({\mu }_{𝑌}+\rho \frac{{\sigma }_{𝑌}}{{\sigma }_{𝑋}}(𝑥-{\mu }_{𝑋}),{\sigma }_{𝑌}^{2}(1-{\rho }^{2})\right).

The conditional PDF h(𝑦∣𝑥)h(𝑦|𝑥) of 𝑌∣𝑥𝑌|𝑥 is given by

h(𝑦∣𝑥)=12πσ𝑌2(1−ρ2)exp⁡[−[𝑦−μ𝑌−ρσ𝑌σ𝑋(𝑥−μ𝑋)]22σ𝑌2(1−ρ2)]h(𝑦|𝑥)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi {\sigma }_{𝑌}^{2}(1-{\rho }^{2})}}\exp \left[-\frac{{\left[𝑦-{\mu }_{𝑌}-\rho \frac{{\sigma }_{𝑌}}{{\sigma }_{𝑋}}(𝑥-{\mu }_{𝑋})\right]}^{2}}{2{\sigma }_{𝑌}^{2}(1-{\rho }^{2})}\right]
(4.8)

Note that so far we only assume that 𝑋𝑋 has mean μ𝑋{\mu }_{𝑋} and variance σ𝑋2{\sigma }_{𝑋}^{2}; nothing is said about the distribution of 𝑋𝑋. If we can further assume that 𝑋𝑋 follows a normal distribution, i.e., 𝑋∼𝒩(μ𝑋,σ𝑋2)𝑋∼𝒩({\mu }_{𝑋},{\sigma }_{𝑋}^{2}), then the PDF of 𝑋𝑋 is

𝑓𝑋(𝑥)=12πσ𝑋2exp⁡[−(𝑥−μ𝑋)22σ𝑋2].{𝑓}_{𝑋}(𝑥)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi {\sigma }_{𝑋}^{2}}}\exp \left[-\frac{{(𝑥-{\mu }_{𝑋})}^{2}}{2{\sigma }_{𝑋}^{2}}\right].

Combined with (4.8), we can show that the joint PDF of 𝑋𝑋 and 𝑌𝑌 is given by

𝑓(𝑥,𝑦)=12πσ𝑋σ𝑌1−ρ2exp⁡[−𝑞(𝑥,𝑦)2]𝑓(𝑥,𝑦)=\frac{1}{2\pi {\sigma }_{𝑋}{\sigma }_{𝑌}\sqrt{1-{\rho }^{2}}}\exp \left[-\frac{𝑞(𝑥,𝑦)}{2}\right]

where

𝑞(𝑥,𝑦)=11−ρ2[(𝑥−μ𝑋σ𝑋)2−2ρ(𝑥−μ𝑋σ𝑋)(𝑦−μ𝑌σ𝑌)+(𝑦−μ𝑌σ𝑌)2].𝑞(𝑥,𝑦)=\frac{1}{1-{\rho }^{2}}\left[{\left(\frac{𝑥-{\mu }_{𝑋}}{{\sigma }_{𝑋}}\right)}^{2}-2\rho \left(\frac{𝑥-{\mu }_{𝑋}}{{\sigma }_{𝑋}}\right)\left(\frac{𝑦-{\mu }_{𝑌}}{{\sigma }_{𝑌}}\right)+{\left(\frac{𝑦-{\mu }_{𝑌}}{{\sigma }_{𝑌}}\right)}^{2}\right].
(4.9)
Remark

We introduce 𝑞(𝑥,𝑦)𝑞(𝑥,𝑦) to ease the typing of the expression of 𝑓(𝑥,𝑦)𝑓(𝑥,𝑦) for it is too long otherwise.

Note that in (4.9), we deliberately organize in terms of (𝑥−μ𝑋)/σ𝑋(𝑥-{\mu }_{𝑋})/{\sigma }_{𝑋} and (𝑦−μ𝑌)/σ𝑌(𝑦-{\mu }_{𝑌})/{\sigma }_{𝑌} to normalize (or standardize) the data of 𝑥𝑥 and 𝑦𝑦. Recall that these terms are related to the standard scores of 𝑋𝑋 and 𝑌𝑌, respectively.

We formally define the bivariate normal distribution as follows.

Definition 4.4

If the joint PDF of 𝑋𝑋 and 𝑌𝑌 is of the form (4.10), then the distribution of (𝑋,𝑌)(𝑋,𝑌) is called the bivariate normal distribution with parameters μ𝑋{\mu }_{𝑋}, σ𝑋2{\sigma }_{𝑋}^{2}, μ𝑌{\mu }_{𝑌}, σ𝑌2{\sigma }_{𝑌}^{2}, and ρ\rho where σ𝑋>0{\sigma }_{𝑋}>0, σ𝑌>0{\sigma }_{𝑌}>0, and ∣ρ∣<1|\rho |<1.

𝑓(𝑥,𝑦)=12πσ𝑋σ𝑌1−ρ2exp⁡[−𝑞(𝑥,𝑦)2]𝑓(𝑥,𝑦)=\frac{1}{2\pi {\sigma }_{𝑋}{\sigma }_{𝑌}\sqrt{1-{\rho }^{2}}}\exp \left[-\frac{𝑞(𝑥,𝑦)}{2}\right]
(4.10)

where

𝑞(𝑥,𝑦)=11−ρ2[(𝑥−μ𝑋σ𝑋)2−2ρ(𝑥−μ𝑋σ𝑋)(𝑦−μ𝑌σ𝑌)+(𝑦−μ𝑌σ𝑌)2].𝑞(𝑥,𝑦)=\frac{1}{1-{\rho }^{2}}\left[{\left(\frac{𝑥-{\mu }_{𝑋}}{{\sigma }_{𝑋}}\right)}^{2}-2\rho \left(\frac{𝑥-{\mu }_{𝑋}}{{\sigma }_{𝑋}}\right)\left(\frac{𝑦-{\mu }_{𝑌}}{{\sigma }_{𝑌}}\right)+{\left(\frac{𝑦-{\mu }_{𝑌}}{{\sigma }_{𝑌}}\right)}^{2}\right].
Remark

Recall that we arrived at the bivariate normal PDF by first imposing structure on the conditional distribution of 𝑌𝑌 given 𝑋=𝑥𝑋=𝑥, then assuming that 𝑋𝑋 is normal, and only then obtaining the joint density. That order matches how the distribution is often motivated: it is natural and keeps intuition in view. By contrast, many texts begin with the full joint formula and then derive properties; that arrangement can be harder to read and can obscure the motivating structure and the secondary insights that arise when one builds the model in stages.

For a logically tight treatment, however, we now take Definition 4.4 as the definition of the bivariate normal distribution. Until this point, we had no official definition; accordingly, any property used informally in the heuristic derivation must not be carried over without proof. Once Definition 4.4 is in place, we must reestablish those properties starting from the density alone. In particular, we may not treat μ𝑋{\mu }_{𝑋}, σ𝑋2{\sigma }_{𝑋}^{2}, μ𝑌{\mu }_{𝑌}, σ𝑌2{\sigma }_{𝑌}^{2}, and ρ\rho merely as suggestive symbols for the means and variances of 𝑋𝑋 and 𝑌𝑌 and the correlation between them; we must derive those interpretations from Definition 4.4.

Reestablishing these facts from the definition may look arduous; in practice the work is largely routine, because the constructive argument that produced the joint density already suggests what to integrate and how the pieces fit together.

Proposition 4.1

If 𝑋𝑋 and 𝑌𝑌 have the bivariate normal distribution with parameters μ𝑋{\mu }_{𝑋}, σ𝑋2{\sigma }_{𝑋}^{2}, μ𝑌{\mu }_{𝑌}, σ𝑌2{\sigma }_{𝑌}^{2}, and ρ\rho , then we have the following properties:

  1. 𝑋∼𝒩(μ𝑋,σ𝑋2)𝑋∼𝒩({\mu }_{𝑋},{\sigma }_{𝑋}^{2}) and 𝑌∼𝒩(μ𝑌,σ𝑌2)𝑌∼𝒩({\mu }_{𝑌},{\sigma }_{𝑌}^{2}).
  2. 𝑋∣𝑌=𝑦∼𝒩(μ𝑋+ρσ𝑋σ𝑌(𝑦−μ𝑌),σ𝑋2(1−ρ2))𝑋|𝑌=𝑦∼𝒩\left({\mu }_{𝑋}+\rho \frac{{\sigma }_{𝑋}}{{\sigma }_{𝑌}}(𝑦-{\mu }_{𝑌}),{\sigma }_{𝑋}^{2}(1-{\rho }^{2})\right) and 𝑌∣𝑋=𝑥∼𝒩(μ𝑌+ρσ𝑌σ𝑋(𝑥−μ𝑋),σ𝑌2(1−ρ2))𝑌|𝑋=𝑥∼𝒩\left({\mu }_{𝑌}+\rho \frac{{\sigma }_{𝑌}}{{\sigma }_{𝑋}}(𝑥-{\mu }_{𝑋}),{\sigma }_{𝑌}^{2}(1-{\rho }^{2})\right).
  3. The correlation coefficient of 𝑋𝑋 and 𝑌𝑌 is ρ\rho .
Proof

(a) We only prove 𝑋∼𝒩(μ𝑋,σ𝑋2)𝑋∼𝒩({\mu }_{𝑋},{\sigma }_{𝑋}^{2}) since the other case is analogous. We can factorize 𝑓(𝑥,𝑦)𝑓(𝑥,𝑦) as follows:

𝑓(𝑥,𝑦)=12πσ𝑋2exp⁡[−(𝑥−μ𝑋)22σ𝑋2]⏟=𝑓~𝑋(𝑥)⋅12πσ𝑌2(1−ρ2)exp⁡[−[𝑦−μ𝑌−ρσ𝑌σ𝑋(𝑥−μ𝑋)]22σ𝑌2(1−ρ2)]⏟=h~(𝑥,𝑦)=𝑓~𝑋(𝑥)h~(𝑥,𝑦).\begin{aligned}𝑓(𝑥,𝑦) & =\underbrace{\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi {\sigma }_{𝑋}^{2}}}\exp \left[-\frac{{(𝑥-{\mu }_{𝑋})}^{2}}{2{\sigma }_{𝑋}^{2}}\right]}_{={\tilde{𝑓}}_{𝑋}(𝑥)} \\ & \cdot \underbrace{\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi {\sigma }_{𝑌}^{2}(1-{\rho }^{2})}}\exp \left[-\frac{{\left[𝑦-{\mu }_{𝑌}-\rho \frac{{\sigma }_{𝑌}}{{\sigma }_{𝑋}}(𝑥-{\mu }_{𝑋})\right]}^{2}}{2{\sigma }_{𝑌}^{2}(1-{\rho }^{2})}\right]}_{=\tilde{h}(𝑥,𝑦)} \\ & ={\tilde{𝑓}}_{𝑋}(𝑥)\tilde{h}(𝑥,𝑦).\end{aligned}
(4.11)

The goal is to show that

∫−∞∞h~(𝑥,𝑦) d𝑦=1.{\int }_{-\infty }^{\infty }\tilde{h}(𝑥,𝑦)\, \mathrm{d}𝑦=1.

And this is evident when we note that h~(𝑥,𝑦)\tilde{h}(𝑥,𝑦) is exactly the PDF of some random variable following 𝒩(μ𝑋+ρσ𝑋σ𝑌(𝑦−μ𝑌),σ𝑋2(1−ρ2))𝒩\left({\mu }_{𝑋}+\rho \frac{{\sigma }_{𝑋}}{{\sigma }_{𝑌}}(𝑦-{\mu }_{𝑌}),{\sigma }_{𝑋}^{2}(1-{\rho }^{2})\right). Therefore,

∫−∞∞𝑓(𝑥,𝑦) d𝑦=∫−∞∞𝑓~𝑋(𝑥)h~(𝑥,𝑦) d𝑦=𝑓~𝑋(𝑥)∫−∞∞h~(𝑥,𝑦) d𝑦=𝑓~𝑋(𝑥).{\int }_{-\infty }^{\infty }𝑓(𝑥,𝑦)\, \mathrm{d}𝑦={\int }_{-\infty }^{\infty }{\tilde{𝑓}}_{𝑋}(𝑥)\tilde{h}(𝑥,𝑦)\, \mathrm{d}𝑦={\tilde{𝑓}}_{𝑋}(𝑥){\int }_{-\infty }^{\infty }\tilde{h}(𝑥,𝑦)\, \mathrm{d}𝑦={\tilde{𝑓}}_{𝑋}(𝑥).

This shows that 𝑓~𝑋(𝑥){\tilde{𝑓}}_{𝑋}(𝑥) is indeed the PDF of 𝑋𝑋; and by its form, we conclude that 𝑋∼𝒩(μ𝑋,σ𝑋2)𝑋∼𝒩({\mu }_{𝑋},{\sigma }_{𝑋}^{2}).

(b) We only prove 𝑌∣𝑋=𝑥∼𝒩(μ𝑌+ρσ𝑌σ𝑋(𝑥−μ𝑌),σ𝑌2(1−ρ2))𝑌|𝑋=𝑥∼𝒩\left({\mu }_{𝑌}+\rho \frac{{\sigma }_{𝑌}}{{\sigma }_{𝑋}}(𝑥-{\mu }_{𝑌}),{\sigma }_{𝑌}^{2}(1-{\rho }^{2})\right). Now that we know 𝑋∼𝒩(μ𝑋,σ𝑋2)𝑋∼𝒩({\mu }_{𝑋},{\sigma }_{𝑋}^{2}), we can use (4.11) to show that

h(𝑦∣𝑥)=h~(𝑥,𝑦)=12πσ𝑌2(1−ρ2)exp⁡[−[𝑦−μ𝑌−ρσ𝑌σ𝑋(𝑥−μ𝑋)]22σ𝑌2(1−ρ2)].h(𝑦|𝑥)=\tilde{h}(𝑥,𝑦)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi {\sigma }_{𝑌}^{2}(1-{\rho }^{2})}}\exp \left[-\frac{{\left[𝑦-{\mu }_{𝑌}-\rho \frac{{\sigma }_{𝑌}}{{\sigma }_{𝑋}}(𝑥-{\mu }_{𝑋})\right]}^{2}}{2{\sigma }_{𝑌}^{2}(1-{\rho }^{2})}\right].

This implies that 𝑌∣𝑋=𝑥∼𝒩(μ𝑌+ρσ𝑌σ𝑋(𝑥−μ𝑌),σ𝑌2(1−ρ2))𝑌|𝑋=𝑥∼𝒩\left({\mu }_{𝑌}+\rho \frac{{\sigma }_{𝑌}}{{\sigma }_{𝑋}}(𝑥-{\mu }_{𝑌}),{\sigma }_{𝑌}^{2}(1-{\rho }^{2})\right).

(c) Let ρ~\tilde{\rho } denote the correlation coefficient. We now have that

μ𝑌∣𝑥=μ𝑌+ρσ𝑌σ𝑋(𝑥−μ𝑌),{\mu }_{𝑌|𝑥}={\mu }_{𝑌}+\rho \frac{{\sigma }_{𝑌}}{{\sigma }_{𝑋}}(𝑥-{\mu }_{𝑌}),

which is a linear function of 𝑥𝑥. Therefore, the coefficient of 𝑥𝑥 must be ρ~σ𝑌σ𝑋\tilde{\rho }\frac{{\sigma }_{𝑌}}{{\sigma }_{𝑋}}; and hence ρ=ρ~\rho =\tilde{\rho }.

If we fix 𝑧>0𝑧>0 and consider the level set 𝑓(𝑥,𝑦)=𝑧𝑓(𝑥,𝑦)=𝑧, then (4.10) rearranges to a quadratic equation in 𝑥𝑥 and 𝑦𝑦:

𝑞(𝑥,𝑦)+2ln⁡(𝑧⋅2πσ𝑋σ𝑌1−ρ2)=0.𝑞(𝑥,𝑦)+2\ln \left(𝑧\cdot 2\pi {\sigma }_{𝑋}{\sigma }_{𝑌}\sqrt{1-{\rho }^{2}}\right)=0.

We show that this curve is an ellipse. Equivalently, every plane parallel to the 𝑥𝑦𝑥𝑦-plane intersects the graph of the bivariate normal density in an ellipse; thus the contours of the density are ellipses.

Written in the general form

𝐴𝑥2+𝐵𝑥𝑦+𝐶𝑦2+𝐷𝑥+𝐸𝑦+𝐹=0,𝐴{𝑥}^{2}+𝐵𝑥𝑦+𝐶{𝑦}^{2}+𝐷𝑥+𝐸𝑦+𝐹=0,

where the coefficients are

𝐴=1σ𝑋2(1−ρ2)𝐵=−2ρσ𝑋σ𝑌(1−ρ2)𝐶=1σ𝑌2(1−ρ2)𝐷=2σ𝑋σ𝑌(1−ρ2)(−σ𝑌μ𝑥σ𝑋+ρμ𝑦)𝐸=2σ𝑋σ𝑌(1−ρ2)(−σ𝑋μ𝑦σ𝑌+ρμ𝑥)𝐹=11−ρ2(μ𝑋2σ𝑋2−2ρμ𝑋μ𝑌σ𝑋σ𝑌+μ𝑌2σ𝑌2)+2ln⁡(𝑧⋅2πσ𝑋σ𝑌1−ρ2)\begin{aligned}𝐴 & =\frac{1}{{\sigma }_{𝑋}^{2}(1-{\rho }^{2})} \\ 𝐵 & =-\frac{2\rho }{{\sigma }_{𝑋}{\sigma }_{𝑌}(1-{\rho }^{2})} \\ 𝐶 & =\frac{1}{{\sigma }_{𝑌}^{2}(1-{\rho }^{2})} \\ 𝐷 & =\frac{2}{{\sigma }_{𝑋}{\sigma }_{𝑌}(1-{\rho }^{2})}\left(-\frac{{\sigma }_{𝑌}{\mu }_{𝑥}}{{\sigma }_{𝑋}}+\rho {\mu }_{𝑦}\right) \\ 𝐸 & =\frac{2}{{\sigma }_{𝑋}{\sigma }_{𝑌}(1-{\rho }^{2})}\left(-\frac{{\sigma }_{𝑋}{\mu }_{𝑦}}{{\sigma }_{𝑌}}+\rho {\mu }_{𝑥}\right) \\ 𝐹 & =\frac{1}{1-{\rho }^{2}}\left(\frac{{\mu }_{𝑋}^{2}}{{\sigma }_{𝑋}^{2}}-\frac{2\rho {\mu }_{𝑋}{\mu }_{𝑌}}{{\sigma }_{𝑋}{\sigma }_{𝑌}}+\frac{{\mu }_{𝑌}^{2}}{{\sigma }_{𝑌}^{2}}\right)+2\ln \left(𝑧\cdot 2\pi {\sigma }_{𝑋}{\sigma }_{𝑌}\sqrt{1-{\rho }^{2}}\right)\end{aligned}

The discriminant is

Δ=𝐵2−4𝐴𝐶=4(ρ2−1)σ𝑋2σ𝑌2(1−ρ2)2<0.\Delta ={𝐵}^{2}-4𝐴𝐶=\frac{4({\rho }^{2}-1)}{{\sigma }_{𝑋}^{2}{\sigma }_{𝑌}^{2}{(1-{\rho }^{2})}^{2}}<0.

Since Δ<0\Delta <0, the conic is an ellipse.

The formula for the center (𝑐𝑥,𝑐𝑦)({𝑐}_{𝑥},{𝑐}_{𝑦}) of the ellipse is

𝑐𝑥=𝐵𝐸−2𝐶𝐷4𝐴𝐶−𝐵2𝑐𝑦=𝐵𝐷−2𝐴𝐸4𝐴𝐶−𝐵2.\begin{aligned}{𝑐}_{𝑥} & =\frac{𝐵𝐸-2𝐶𝐷}{4𝐴𝐶-{𝐵}^{2}} \\ {𝑐}_{𝑦} & =\frac{𝐵𝐷-2𝐴𝐸}{4𝐴𝐶-{𝐵}^{2}}.\end{aligned}

After a lengthy but routine calculation, we obtain

(𝑐𝑥,𝑐𝑦)=(μ𝑋,μ𝑌).({𝑐}_{𝑥},{𝑐}_{𝑦})=({\mu }_{𝑋},{\mu }_{𝑌}).

That is, the centers of all the ellipses are at (μ𝑋,μ𝑌)({\mu }_{𝑋},{\mu }_{𝑌}), independent of 𝑧𝑧.

Example 4.5

Let (𝑋,𝑌)(𝑋,𝑌) have the bivariate normal distribution with parameters μ𝑋=10{\mu }_{𝑋}=10, σ𝑋2=9{\sigma }_{𝑋}^{2}=9, μ𝑌=12{\mu }_{𝑌}=12, σ𝑌2=16{\sigma }_{𝑌}^{2}=16, and ρ=0.6\rho =0.6. Figure 4.4 shows the joint PDF as a surface over the 𝑥𝑦𝑥𝑦-plane on the left. On the right, contours of that density are drawn in the plane; superimposed is the conditional mean μ𝑌∣𝑥{\mu }_{𝑌|𝑥} of 𝑌𝑌 given 𝑋=𝑥𝑋=𝑥, i.e., the line 𝑦=μ𝑌+ρσ𝑌/σ𝑋(𝑥−μ𝑋)𝑦={\mu }_{𝑌}+\rho {\sigma }_{𝑌}/{\sigma }_{𝑋}(𝑥-{\mu }_{𝑋}). It passes through the point (μ𝑋,μ𝑌)({\mu }_{𝑋},{\mu }_{𝑌}), which is the center of all the ellipses.

Figure 4.4 (a) Joint PDF of 𝑋𝑋 and 𝑌𝑌. (b) Contours in the 𝑥𝑦𝑥𝑦-plane with the conditional mean μ𝑌∣𝑥{\mu }_{𝑌|𝑥}.

Recall that if two random variables are independent, then their correlation coefficient is 00. But the converse is not true. However, for the bivariate normal distribution, the independence is equivalent to the zero correlation.

Theorem 4.1
Let 𝑋𝑋 and 𝑌𝑌 have the bivariate normal distribution with correlation coefficient ρ\rho . Then, 𝑋𝑋 and 𝑌𝑌 are independent if and only if ρ=0\rho =0.
Proof

We only need to show the reverse direction. Assume that ρ=0\rho =0. It follows from (4.11) that

𝑓(𝑥,𝑦)=12πσ𝑋2exp⁡[−(𝑥−μ𝑋)22σ𝑋2]⏟=𝑓𝑋(𝑥)⋅12πσ𝑌2exp⁡[−(𝑦−μ𝑌)22σ𝑌2]⏟=𝑓𝑌(𝑦).𝑓(𝑥,𝑦)=\underbrace{\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi {\sigma }_{𝑋}^{2}}}\exp \left[-\frac{{(𝑥-{\mu }_{𝑋})}^{2}}{2{\sigma }_{𝑋}^{2}}\right]}_{={𝑓}_{𝑋}(𝑥)}\cdot \underbrace{\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi {\sigma }_{𝑌}^{2}}}\exp \left[-\frac{{(𝑦-{\mu }_{𝑌})}^{2}}{2{\sigma }_{𝑌}^{2}}\right]}_{={𝑓}_{𝑌}(𝑦)}.

This shows that the joint PDF can be factored as the product of the marginal PDFs. Therefore, 𝑋𝑋 and 𝑌𝑌 are independent.

Exercises

Exercise 4.8

Let

𝑓(𝑥,𝑦)=12π𝑒−(𝑥2+𝑦2)/2[1+𝑥𝑦𝑒−(𝑥2+𝑦2−2)/2],𝑥,𝑦∈R.𝑓(𝑥,𝑦)=\frac{1}{2\pi }{𝑒}^{-({𝑥}^{2}+{𝑦}^{2})/2}[1+𝑥𝑦{𝑒}^{-({𝑥}^{2}+{𝑦}^{2}-2)/2}],\quad 𝑥,𝑦\in \mathbb{R}.

Show that

  1. 𝑓(𝑥,𝑦)𝑓(𝑥,𝑦) is a joint PDF.
  2. The marginal PDFs 𝑓𝑋(𝑥){𝑓}_{𝑋}(𝑥) and 𝑓𝑌(𝑦){𝑓}_{𝑌}(𝑦) are each normal.
Note

This example tells us that 𝑋𝑋 and 𝑌𝑌 may each be normal; and yet their joint distribution may not be a bivariate normal distribution. Figure 4.5 shows the joint PDF of 𝑋𝑋 and 𝑌𝑌 in this example.

Figure 4.5 Joint PDF 𝑓(𝑥,𝑦)𝑓(𝑥,𝑦) of 𝑋𝑋 and 𝑌𝑌. 𝑋𝑋 and 𝑌𝑌 are each normal, but 𝑓(𝑥,𝑦)𝑓(𝑥,𝑦) is not a bivariate normal PDF.
Proof

(a) The statement that 𝑓(𝑥,𝑦)≥0𝑓(𝑥,𝑦)\geq 0 for all 𝑥,𝑦∈R𝑥,𝑦\in \mathbb{R} is not that obvious. The key is to show that

∣𝑥𝑦∣𝑒−(𝑥2+𝑦2−2)/2≤1.|𝑥𝑦|{𝑒}^{-({𝑥}^{2}+{𝑦}^{2}-2)/2}\leq 1.

We have

∣𝑥𝑦∣𝑒−(𝑥2+𝑦2−2)/2≤∣𝑥𝑦∣𝑒−(2∣𝑥𝑦∣−2)/2=∣𝑥𝑦∣𝑒1−∣𝑥𝑦∣|𝑥𝑦|{𝑒}^{-({𝑥}^{2}+{𝑦}^{2}-2)/2}\leq |𝑥𝑦|{𝑒}^{-(2|𝑥𝑦|-2)/2}=|𝑥𝑦|{𝑒}^{1-|𝑥𝑦|}

where the inequality follows from the fact that 𝑥2+𝑦2≥2∣𝑥𝑦∣{𝑥}^{2}+{𝑦}^{2}\geq 2|𝑥𝑦|. Let 𝑡=∣𝑥𝑦∣𝑡=|𝑥𝑦| and define 𝑔(𝑡)=𝑡𝑒1−𝑡𝑔(𝑡)=𝑡{𝑒}^{1-𝑡}. We now estimate 𝑔(𝑡)𝑔(𝑡). Taking the derivative of 𝑔(𝑡)𝑔(𝑡),

𝑔′(𝑡)=(1−𝑡)𝑒1−𝑡,𝑡>0.{𝑔}^{\prime }(𝑡)=(1-𝑡){𝑒}^{1-𝑡},\quad 𝑡>0.

Note that

𝑔′(𝑡){>0,𝑡<1=0,𝑡=1<0,𝑡>1{𝑔}^{\prime }(𝑡)\begin{cases}>0,\quad 𝑡<1 \\ =0,\quad 𝑡=1 \\ <0,\quad 𝑡>1\end{cases}

Therefore, 𝑔𝑔 attains its maximum at 𝑡=1𝑡=1 and the maximum value is 𝑔(1)=1𝑔(1)=1. In summary, we shown that

∣𝑥𝑦∣𝑒−(𝑥2+𝑦2−2)/2≤∣𝑥𝑦∣𝑒1−∣𝑥𝑦∣=𝑔(𝑡)≤1|𝑥𝑦|{𝑒}^{-({𝑥}^{2}+{𝑦}^{2}-2)/2}\leq |𝑥𝑦|{𝑒}^{1-|𝑥𝑦|}=𝑔(𝑡)\leq 1

where the equality holds if and only if ∣𝑥∣=∣𝑦∣=1|𝑥|=|𝑦|=1. This implies that indeed 𝑓(𝑥,𝑦)≥0𝑓(𝑥,𝑦)\geq 0 for all 𝑥,𝑦∈R𝑥,𝑦\in \mathbb{R}. Moreover, the only two points where 𝑓𝑓 vanishes are 𝑓(1,−1)=0𝑓(1,-1)=0 and 𝑓(−1,1)=0𝑓(-1,1)=0.

We also need to show that 𝑓(𝑥,𝑦)𝑓(𝑥,𝑦) integrates to 11. Write

𝑓(𝑥,𝑦)=12π[𝑒−(𝑥2+𝑦2)/2+𝑥𝑦𝑒−(𝑥2+𝑦2−1)].𝑓(𝑥,𝑦)=\frac{1}{2\pi }[{𝑒}^{-({𝑥}^{2}+{𝑦}^{2})/2}+𝑥𝑦{𝑒}^{-({𝑥}^{2}+{𝑦}^{2}-1)}].

We divide the integral into two parts:

∫−∞∞∫−∞∞𝑓(𝑥,𝑦) d𝑥 d𝑦=12π(∫−∞∞𝑒−(𝑥2+𝑦2)/2 d𝑥 d𝑦⏟=𝐼1+∫−∞∞𝑥𝑦𝑒−(𝑥2+𝑦2−1) d𝑥 d𝑦⏟=𝐼2).\begin{aligned} & {\int }_{-\infty }^{\infty }{\int }_{-\infty }^{\infty }𝑓(𝑥,𝑦)\, \mathrm{d}𝑥\, \mathrm{d}𝑦 \\ = & \frac{1}{2\pi }\left(\underbrace{{\int }_{-\infty }^{\infty }{𝑒}^{-({𝑥}^{2}+{𝑦}^{2})/2}\, \mathrm{d}𝑥\, \mathrm{d}𝑦}_{={𝐼}_{1}}+\underbrace{{\int }_{-\infty }^{\infty }𝑥𝑦{𝑒}^{-({𝑥}^{2}+{𝑦}^{2}-1)}\, \mathrm{d}𝑥\, \mathrm{d}𝑦}_{={𝐼}_{2}}\right).\end{aligned}
(4.12)

By using the polar coordinate transformation, we have

∫−∞∞𝑒−(𝑥2+𝑦2)/2 d𝑥 d𝑦=2π.{\int }_{-\infty }^{\infty }{𝑒}^{-({𝑥}^{2}+{𝑦}^{2})/2}\, \mathrm{d}𝑥\, \mathrm{d}𝑦=2\pi .

And

∫−∞∞𝑒−𝑥2/2 d𝑥=2π.{\int }_{-\infty }^{\infty }{𝑒}^{-{𝑥}^{2}/2}\, \mathrm{d}𝑥=\sqrt{2\pi }.
(4.13)

(Recall that we have done above calculations when we were studying the normal distributions.) Therefore, 𝐼1=2π{𝐼}_{1}=2\pi . We now evaluate 𝐼2{𝐼}_{2}. (The goal is to show that 𝐼2=0{𝐼}_{2}=0.)

Again, using the polar coordinate transformation, we have

𝐼2=∫−∞∞𝑥𝑦𝑒−(𝑥2+𝑦2−1) d𝑥 d𝑦=∫−∞∞∫02πsin⁡θcos⁡θ𝑟3𝑒−(𝑟2−1) dθ d𝑟=∫−∞∞𝑟3𝑒−(𝑟2−1)∫02πsin⁡θcos⁡θ dθ⏟=0 d𝑟=0.\begin{aligned}{𝐼}_{2}={\int }_{-\infty }^{\infty }𝑥𝑦{𝑒}^{-({𝑥}^{2}+{𝑦}^{2}-1)}\, \mathrm{d}𝑥\, \mathrm{d}𝑦 & ={\int }_{-\infty }^{\infty }{\int }_{0}^{2\pi }\sin \theta \cos \theta {𝑟}^{3}{𝑒}^{-({𝑟}^{2}-1)}\, \mathrm{d}\theta \, \mathrm{d}𝑟 \\ & ={\int }_{-\infty }^{\infty }{𝑟}^{3}{𝑒}^{-({𝑟}^{2}-1)}\underbrace{{\int }_{0}^{2\pi }\sin \theta \cos \theta \, \mathrm{d}\theta }_{=0}\, \mathrm{d}𝑟 \\ & =0.\end{aligned}

Plugging the values of 𝐼1{𝐼}_{1} and 𝐼2{𝐼}_{2} into (4.12) yields

∫−∞∞∫−∞∞𝑓(𝑥,𝑦) d𝑥 d𝑦=1.{\int }_{-\infty }^{\infty }{\int }_{-\infty }^{\infty }𝑓(𝑥,𝑦)\, \mathrm{d}𝑥\, \mathrm{d}𝑦=1.

(b) We only compute the marginal 𝑓𝑋(𝑥){𝑓}_{𝑋}(𝑥). We divide the integral into two parts:

𝑓𝑋(𝑥)=∫−∞∞𝑓(𝑥,𝑦) d𝑦=12π(∫−∞∞𝑒−(𝑥2+𝑦2)/2 d𝑦⏟=𝐼1+∫−∞∞𝑥𝑦𝑒−(𝑥2+𝑦2−1) d𝑦⏟=𝐼2).{𝑓}_{𝑋}(𝑥)={\int }_{-\infty }^{\infty }𝑓(𝑥,𝑦)\, \mathrm{d}𝑦=\frac{1}{2\pi }\left(\underbrace{{\int }_{-\infty }^{\infty }{𝑒}^{-({𝑥}^{2}+{𝑦}^{2})/2}\, \mathrm{d}𝑦}_{={𝐼}_{1}}+\underbrace{{\int }_{-\infty }^{\infty }𝑥𝑦{𝑒}^{-({𝑥}^{2}+{𝑦}^{2}-1)}\, \mathrm{d}𝑦}_{={𝐼}_{2}}\right).

By (4.13), we obtain

𝐼1=∫−∞∞𝑒−(𝑥2+𝑦2)/2 d𝑦=𝑒−𝑥2/2∫−∞∞𝑒−𝑦2/2 d𝑦=2π𝑒−𝑥2/2.{𝐼}_{1}={\int }_{-\infty }^{\infty }{𝑒}^{-({𝑥}^{2}+{𝑦}^{2})/2}\, \mathrm{d}𝑦={𝑒}^{-{𝑥}^{2}/2}{\int }_{-\infty }^{\infty }{𝑒}^{-{𝑦}^{2}/2}\, \mathrm{d}𝑦=\sqrt{2\pi }{𝑒}^{-{𝑥}^{2}/2}.

As for 𝐼2{𝐼}_{2}, we may immediately conclude that 𝐼2=0{𝐼}_{2}=0 since the integrand is an odd function of 𝑦𝑦. Therefore,

𝑓𝑋(𝑥)=12π(2π𝑒−𝑥2/2+0)=12π𝑒−𝑥2/2.{𝑓}_{𝑋}(𝑥)=\frac{1}{2\pi }\left(\sqrt{2\pi }{𝑒}^{-{𝑥}^{2}/2}+0\right)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi }}{𝑒}^{-{𝑥}^{2}/2}.

This shows that 𝑋∼𝒩(0,1)𝑋∼𝒩(0,1), i.e., 𝑋𝑋 follows a standard normal distribution. Similarly, we can show that 𝑌∼𝒩(0,1)𝑌∼𝒩(0,1).